I think most ardent baseball fans knew that the media circus surrounding negotiations between Daisuke Matsuzaka and the Red Sox were going to be blown out of proportion. All the parties involved knew that too much was at stake for Matsuzaka to not be signed. Indeed, Matsuzaka has just agreed to a six year, $52 million deal with the Red Sox.
While some pundits may say that the Red Sox pulled one off against agent Scott Boras, that really isn’t the case. Boras was put in a no-win situation by representing Matsuzaka, as they basically had to take the Sox’s best offer, or Matsuzaka would’ve had to toil in Japan until the 2009 season (he wouldn’t have become a free agent until nearly midway through MLB’s 2008 season). But, Boras may have really hurt himself by taking too much time with Matsuzaka. Boras seemingly has spent little time working on the contracts of free agent pitchers Barry Zito and Jeff Weaver.
While Zito will have several suitors, a number of the teams interested in him, such as the Rangers and Cubs, have already spent significantly for other needs, and will now either be out of the running (Cubs) or not as interested as they were at first (Rangers). Meanwhile, Weaver, already a challenge to sell, has seen interest wane from his primary suitor, the Cardinals.
While those free agents will be monitored, several other moves were made in the past few days, including a notable trade. In response to losing pitcher Andy Pettitte, the Astros traded outfielder Willy Taveras and pitchers Taylor Buchholz and Jason Hirsh to the Rockies for pitcher Jason Jennings and a minor leaguer. Houston is going with a “win now” strategy, as Jennings will be a free agent after the 2007 season, but there should be money enough to sign Jennings if he likes his new surroundings. The trade overall favors the Rockies, as Buchholz is a lowball pitcher who had flashes of excellence last year and shouldn’t be as affected by the air in Colorado as most pitchers. Hirsh also was respectable in his starts for the Astros, so both have the tools to become mid-level starters—what Jennings is now. Taveras is maybe slightly better than league-average at center field, but he fills a need for the Rockies. The trade also makes shortstop to have been turned outfielder Clint Barmes expendable. Several teams are interested in acquiring Barmes in the hopes that his dismal 2006 is just a bad memory.
The Texas Rangers signed reliever Eric Gagne to a one year deal that, with incentives, could reach $6 million. The question is why? Akinori Otsuka was a fine closer last season, saving 32 games in 36 chances with an ERA of just over 2.00 as a closer. It is unknown whether Gagne or Otsuka will get the first opportunity to be the Rangers closer in 2007. I’d say right now, Otsuka is still the guy, especially since Gagne made few appearances last season. But if Otsuka stumbles the least bit, and Gagne’s healthy, don’t be surprised if the former top flight closer makes a return.
We’ve received word that the Blue Jays have offered outfielder Vernon Wells a seven year, $126 million extension before his “walk year” even begins. I have two words for Mr. Wells: take it. Wells is an excellent outfielder, but he’s a far more comfortable hitter at the Rogers Centre than he is on the road. He’ll also have free agent outfielders Andruw Jones and Jermaine Dye to compete with in next offseason’s market. Wells would have to match Alfonzo Soriano’s 2006 to get more than what the Blue Jays are offering him, so it’s in his best interest to now remain a Blue Jay.
There have also been a pair of whimsical pitcher signings, the first being the Royals inexplicably giving Gil Meche a five year deal worth $55 million. One should look past Meche’s 55-44 career record to note his terrible career ERA and the fact that he’s had one truly good season in his career. He’s also a high injury risk, and his record reflects that he’s been lucky to have a good offense supporting him. He won’t have that luxury for at least the next couple seasons in Kansas City, where he’ll be lucky to win more than 15 games over that two season stretch. I understand that Kansas City wants to turn things around, but it’s not going to be built around a pitcher like Meche. They would’ve been better off saving their money or at least putting the money in an everyday player instead of a middling starting pitcher.
Speaking of middling starting pitchers, the Cubs opened the pocketbooks again, this time to cut a three year, $21 million deal with Jason Marquis. Marquis was another pitcher who was embraced by lady luck last season, managing 14 wins despite an ERA of 6.02. Marquis has been terribly streaky over his career, and endured two long losing streaks during his tenure with the Cardinals. Marquis is a better pitcher than his 2006, but he’s been a bit hard headed his entire career, and if Leo Mazzone and Dave Duncan couldn’t get to him, I don’t see the Cubs coaching staff doing any better with him. One positive with Marquis is that he’s been solid at the plate, and can give a team a valuable pinch hitter late in long games. But that attribute alone isn’t worth $7 million a year. Overall, Marquis will deliver league-average or slightly below that in stats, and a middling record. He won’t be worth even this seemingly modest contract.
And since I’ve touched on a former Cardinals pitcher, it’s notable that the World Series champs have done little this offseason to fill the gaping holes in their pitching rotation. The Cardinals offered Jeff Suppan less money than the Cubs have given Jason Marquis, and the team is having problems in working out an agreement with Jeff Weaver. Barry Zito is not out of the team’s reach in budget, but the Cardinals have balked at offering “control” pitchers deals beyond three seasons. Unfortunately, the Cardinals philosophy reeks of making 2008 a rebuilding year. The team doesn’t have anyone in its minor league system ready to walk in and put up the numbers Suppan has for them over the past three seasons. In a couple seasons, the younger pitchers in the farm system may be ready, so it’s understandable that the team wouldn’t want to go four or five years on a #2 or #3 type pitcher, but I think they should make an exception with Suppan.
Should Suppan fetch $10 million plus per year? No. He never tossed a single complete game in his tenure with the Cardinals, and never quite pitched 200 innings in any of his seasons with St. Louis. If you average his 2006 numbers instead of looking at it by halves, Suppan actually averaged about what he actually did in 2004 and 2005. He was just a bit unlucky in the win department, and very lucky in the loss department. He’s the quintessential #3 guy in a rotation, a guy who generally gives his team six innings of 2-4 run ball while his gems outnumber his blowups by enough of a margin to put him modestly above league average. So he’s not a $10 million guy.
But he’s certainly worth more than the $7 million (or less, as reports indicate) per season for three seasons that the Cardinals have offered. Suppan does his homework and is a great guy for younger players to model themselves after. Suppan made every single one of his scheduled starts as a Cardinal, gave 5-8 solid innings in most of those starts, and hasn’t been on the disabled list since 1996. So, while I don’t believe the Cardinals should go crazy to keep Suppan, I think he’d stay if they made a good faith four year offer. The Cardinals would be hard pressed to find a better veteran starter for, say, a four year deal worth $32-36 million, but they certainly could do worse. So, I believe the Cardinals should make that type of offer to Suppan…then if he doesn’t accept, move on.
That’s all I have for now! For the latest developments in the baseball offseason, keep checking with us at To the Point and Back!
