I'm sure that some people and companies will make a bird flu bet that pays off. They'll buy stock in Roche or the companies that just got contracts from the United States government to make bird flu vaccines or in medical supplies or in some other way will make a killing.
But I think there're too many unknown factors.
Will the virus ever become contagious to people? If so, will it retain its high mortality rate? Will it be quickly contained or will it spread?
Prices of goods and services rise and fall in relation to supply and demand. That's basic economics.
The trouble is, depending on the answers to those questions and a host of other factors there will be numerous possibilities.
Commodities rose in price during the 1918 flu pandemic. Possibly scared Americans would rush to buy oranges in the mistaken belief they contain enough Vitamin C to protect them from bird flu. Or maybe they'll be smarter.
Coffee is likely to be in short supply. We grow oranges in America but coffee must come from South America and Africa, two continents that'll be hard hit by bird flu. Coffee futures would likely rise a lot. But if you buy and sell at the wrong time, you could still lose a lot of money.
Labor will be in short supply -- but demand will also go down as all but essential businesses close down for the duration. Even if you're a doctor or nurse, you may find yourself drafted for bird flu duty, not given a choice to bargain for more money.
Gold will no doubt spike up, as it always does during hard times -- but at some point gold holders will want to sell some to raise money for food, and then the price of gold could collapse. Demand for gold jewelry would plummet during and after the pandemic.
I've seen people predict gasoline going up to $7 a gallon, but I think the pandemic could drop the price dramatically, because demand will drop.
People will not be driving to school or to work or to recreation or shopping malls. They'll stay home as much as possible. Dead and sick drivers don't buy gasoline. All trucks will stop running except those carrying food, water and medicines. All nonessential airplane travel will stop.
Currencies are commodities too, and intimately linked to politics. I have not see anyone else besides myself point out that a serious bird flu pandemic would redraw the political and perhaps the geographical map of the world.
If masses of people in a country are upset both by bird flu deaths and resulting economic shortages, they might well overturn their leadership. That means, the old money may become worthless. That means you should stock up on gold now.
Although I expect law and order challenges to occur in the U.S., I think the U.S. government will outlive bird flu. Same with Japan and most countries in Western Europe -- though the massive number of immigrants from Muslim countries may pose more of a security hazard than we can guess, making me wonder about countries whose stability I'd have been certain of twenty years ago, such as France and Germany.
But could Gloria Magcapal continue to keep a lid on her enemies in The Philippines? Could China continue to repress its entire countryside and avoid splitting into sections? Could India, which has an extremely large number of ethnic minorities? Could the House of Sahd continue to control the government of Saudi Arabia?
Not all those countries would have violent governmental changes, but some would.
So I think the U.S. dollar, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, euro, Swiss franc and yen will retain high value. I can't say how they'll move in relation to each other, but they'll all likely retain a store of value.
Cash in strong currencies will be king in developed countries. Keep it safe -- in government bonds.
Gold will be the winner in developing countries. And bank accounts in stable developed countries.
Oh, I just took it for granted that you understand that in the event of a serious pandemic stock markets around the world will scrape bottom.
The 1918 Flu Pandemic
You may have heard the old observation that if you give enough monkeys a keyboard, eventually one will -- just by random chance -- type out the complete works of Shakespeare.
Of course, the odds against one monkey doing this are extremely high. The universe might implode before one monkey could do this.
But give a trillion monkeys a keyboard and maybe one will do it in a few million years. Give as many trillion monkeys as it takes to stretch from here to the next galaxy a keyboard, and chances are one out of those gazillions of monkey will actually type out the complete works of Shakespeare.
I'm comparing monkeys to the bird flu virus or A/H5N1.
The bird flu virus doesn't have to do anything comparable to a monkey typing out Shakespeare. It just has to mutate or recombine genetic material to become high contagious to people. That's the start of a pandemic.
For viruses, that's a lot easier to do than for a monkey to type out the complete works of Shakespeare. There're many strains of influenza viruses in the world which are highly contagious to people. Most of us have suffered from the flu, caught from a child or coworker, so we know that.
The more A/H5N1 viruses there are this world, the higher the probability that one of them will become highly contagious, human to human, just as ordinary flu is now.
Just as with monkeys -- the more viruses, the faster one of them becomes highly contagious.
Yes, A/H5N1 "hid out" in chickens in China and wild ducks from the December 1997 massacre of chickens in Hong Kong until bird flu started killing chickens in South Korea.
It spread through most countries of Southeast Asia without becoming a pandemic. It's spread into Europe and Africa without becoming a pandemic -- so far.
The more people or animals bird flu infects, the more H5N1 viruses there are. Replicating, mutating and recombining with ordinary flu viruses.
Whether it's chickens in Thailand, cats in Germany or little girls in Turkey . . . the more viruses, the greater the probability it will become highly contagious.
And because it's now so widespread, there's little chance that it will be contained soon. Scientists expect it to land in the New World by autumn.
It's out of control and spreading fast.
How long before one out of those many countless trillions of viruses becomes highly contagious?
Richard Stooker has sinced written about articles on various topics from Bird Flu, Chess and Bird Flu. c 2006 by Richard StookerRichard Stooker is the author of How to Protect Yourself and Your Family From Bird Fluhttp://www.BirdFluProtectionHome.com/. Richard Stooker's top article generates over 12100 views. Bookmark Richard Stooker to your Favourites.
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