The risks of mutating into a pandemic disease are estimated to cause 7.5m deaths. Some specialists believe that this is an optimistic opinion.



The real warning comes when we realize that there is no way to produce sufficient vaccines in case of a pandemic. Another major impact could be over global economy because the virus may lead to many deaths among birds and also among humans.

There is a desperate need for research in order to develop a proper and safe vaccine that can prevent the infection. As we know, since the first case of human bird flu was registered in 1997 at Hong Kong, there have been more than 90 infections among humans in south-east Asia. 54 of these persons have died. After the administration of the vaccine outbreaks seem to occur not as often as before in countries such as Thailand and in other south-east Asian countries. While this phenomenon was registered, in Vietnam many human cases have been developed. As specialists agreed such clustering could mean the virus is becoming more and more efficient. This could mean a precondition for pandemic.

Registered migratory poultry deaths are also a concern because specialists say that this could mean another indication that the virus is mutating and it is becoming more virulent. The main problem in that area is the fact that countries like China or Vietnam are not providing enough data for animal and human health officials, leaving the scientists uninformed.

As we wrote earlier the most optimistic predictions say that 7.5m deaths will be registered in the next bird flu pandemic. Specialists agreed that it is only a mater of time until a flu pandemic starts. It is estimated a number of 30 million hospitalized persons.

Statistics say that a pandemic occurs every 30 years or so. It is known that the most virulent was registered in 1918. This Spanish flu killed about 40 million persons all over the globe. Less virulent but with a number of victims of about 1 million each were the Asian flu pandemic in 1957 and the Hong Kong flu in 1968.

Even if the risk of developing a new world pandemic exist it is good to remember that no one can produce the necessary quantity of vaccine.